Tác động của đại dịch Covid-19 đến hoạt động kinh tế tại Việt Nam

2 0 23.176,0 1951,70 37,14 25,66 3,15 938,29
09/11/2020 1.215 0 23.170,0 1854,40 40,29 23,70 3,16 951,99
10/11/2020 1.226 0 23.173,0 1876,40 41,36 24,46 3,16 951,90
11/11/2020 1.252 0 23.175,0 1861,60 41,45 24,27 3,13 952,22
12/11/2020 1.253 0 23.175,0 1873,30 41,12 24,31 3,15 959,28
13/11/2020 1.256 0 23.175,0 1886,20 40,13 24,78 3,18 966,29
16/11/2020 1.283 0 23.175,0 1887,80 41,34 24,80 3,22 950,79
17/11/2020 1.288 0 23.163,0 1885,10 41,43 24,65 3,20 968,90
18/11/2020 1.300 0 23.160,0 1873,90 41,82 24,45 3,20 973,53
19/11/2020 1.304 0 23.176,0 1861,50 41,74 24,05 3,20 983,26
20/11/2020 1.305 0 23.176,0 1872,40 42,15 24,36 3,29 990,00
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM NĂM 2020 VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG NĂM 2021 
ỨNG PHÓ VÀ VƯỢT QUA ĐẠI DỊCH COVID-19, HƯỚNG TỚI PHỤC HỒI VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN
141
Ngày
COVID-19 (Việt Nam) Tỷ giá 
(USD/VND)
Giá vàng Giá dầu Giá bạc Giá đồng
VN-IN-
DEX Total Cases Total Deaths
23/11/2020 1.312 0 23.177,0 1837,80 43,06 23,63 3,26 994,19
24/11/2020 1.316 0 23.151,0 1810,90 44,91 23,41 3,32 995,76
25/11/2020 1.321 0 23.160,0 1811,20 45,71 23,45 3,33 999,94
26/11/2020 1.331 0 23.164,0 1807,00 44,98 23,22 3,35 1005,97
27/11/2020 1.339 0 23.160,0 1788,10 45,53 22,64 3,42 1010,22
30/11/2020 1.347 0 23.140,0 1780,90 45,34 22,59 3,44 1003,08
01/12/2020 1.351 0 23.129,0 1818,90 44,55 24,09 3,49 1008,87
02/12/2020 1.358 0 23.129,0 1830,20 45,28 24,08 3,49 1014,32
03/12/2020 1.361 0 23.125,0 1841,10 45,64 24,14 3,49 1019,80
04/12/2020 1.361 0 23.130,0 1840,00 46,26 24,25 3,52 1021,49
07/12/2020 1.367 0 23.127,0 1866,00 45,76 24,79 3,52 1029,98
08/12/2020 1.377 0 23.128,0 1874,90 45,60 24,74 3,50 1029,26
09/12/2020 1.381 0 23.128,0 1838,50 45,52 23,99 3,51 1039,13
10/12/2020 1.385 0 23.128,0 1837,40 46,78 24,09 3,58 1030,91
11/12/2020 1.391 0 23.128,0 1843,60 46,57 24,09 3,53 1045,96
14/12/2020 1.402 0 23.126,0 1832,10 46,99 24,05 3,53 1064,09
15/12/2020 1.405 0 23.126,0 1855,30 47,62 24,64 3,54 1055,27
16/12/2020 1.405 0 23.126,0 1859,10 47,82 25,05 3,56 1066,99
17/12/2020 1.407 0 23.120,0 1890,40 48,36 26,18 3,60 1051,77
18/12/2020 1.410 0 23.124,0 1888,90 49,10 26,03 3,63 1067,46
21/12/2020 1.414 0 23.120,0 1882,80 47,74 26,38 3,58 1081,08
22/12/2020 1.420 0 23.127,0 1870,30 47,02 25,54 3,52 1083,45
23/12/2020 1.421 0 23.130,0 1878,10 48,12 25,92 3,56 1078,90
24/12/2020 1.432 0 23.125,0 1883,20 48,23 25,91 3,56 1067,52
25/12/2020 1.439 0 23.130,0 1883,20 48,23 26,30 3,56 1084,42
28/12/2020 1.451 0 23.125,0 1880,40 47,62 26,54 3,57 1091,33
29/12/2020 1.454 0 23.120,0 1882,90 48,00 26,22 3,56 1099,49
30/12/2020 1.456 0 23.088,0 1893,40 48,40 26,57 3,55 1097,54
31/12/2020 1.465 0 23.080,0 1895,10 48,52 26,41 3,52 1103,87
01/01/2021 1.474 0 23.080,0 1901,60 48,52 26,53 3,52 1103,87
04/01/2021 1.497 0 23.070,0 1946,60 47,62 27,36 3,55 1120,47
05/01/2021 1.504 0 23.080,0 1954,40 49,93 27,64 3,64 1132,55
06/01/2021 1.505 0 23.090,0 1908,60 50,63 27,04 3,65 1143,21
07/01/2021 1.509 0 23.078,0 1913,60 50,83 27,26 3,70 1156,49
08/01/2021 1.512 0 23.066,0 1835,40 52,24 24,64 3,67 1167,69
11/01/2021 1.515 0 23.050,0 1850,80 52,25 25,28 3,56 1184,89
12/01/2021 1.520 0 23.065,0 1844,20 53,21 25,44 3,61 1192,28
13/01/2021 1.521 0 23.064,0 1854,90 52,91 25,57 3,62 1186,05
14/01/2021 1.531 0 23.064,0 1851,40 53,57 25,80 3,66 1187,40
15/01/2021 1.536 0 23.065,0 1829,90 52,36 24,87 3,60 1194,20
17/01/2021 1.537 0 23.065,0 1809,75 52,20 24,25 3,58 1194,20
KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA
142
Ngày
COVID-19 (Việt Nam) Tỷ giá 
(USD/VND)
Giá vàng Giá dầu Giá bạc Giá đồng
VN-IN-
DEX Total Cases Total Deaths
18/01/2021 1.539 0 23.069,0 1836,60 52,36 25,05 3,62 1191,94
19/01/2021 1.540 0 23.069,0 1840,20 52,98 25,32 3,63 1131,00
20/01/2021 1.544 0 23.072,0 1866,50 53,24 25,77 3,64 1134,68
21/01/2021 1.546 0 23.060,0 1865,90 53,13 25,85 3,65 1164,21
22/01/2021 1.548 0 23.070,0 1856,20 52,27 25,56 3,63 1166,78
25/01/2021 1.549 0 23.060,0 1859,00 52,77 25,48 3,63 1166,05
26/01/2021 1.551 0 23.069,0 1854,80 52,61 25,54 3,62 1136,12
27/01/2021 1.551 0 23.069,0 1848,90 52,85 25,39 3,56 1097,17
28/01/2021 1.642 0 23.059,0 1841,20 52,34 25,92 3,58 1023,94
29/01/2021 1.705 0 23.048,0 1850,30 52,20 26,91 3,56 1056,61
01/02/2021 1.850 0 23.045,0 1863,90 53,55 29,42 3,55 1035,51
02/02/2021 1.882 0 23.027,0 1833,40 54,76 26,40 3,52 1075,53
03/02/2021 1.911 0 23.020,0 1835,10 55,69 26,89 3,57 1111,29
04/02/2021 1.957 0 23.015,0 1791,20 56,23 26,23 3,55 1112,19
05/02/2021 1.976 0 23.000,0 1813,00 56,85 27,02 3,63 1126,91
08/02/2021 2.050 0 22,970,0 1834,20 57,97 27,58 3,67 1083,18
09/02/2021 2.064 0 23.010,0 1837,50 58,36 27,40 3,72 1114,93
10/02/2021 2.091 0 23.010,0 1842,70 58,68 27,08 3,77 1114,93
11/02/2021 2.140 0 23.010,0 1826,80 58,24 27,05 3,77 1114,93
12/02/2021 2.142 0 23.010,0 1823,20 59,47 27,33 3,79 1114,93
14/02/2021 2.228 0 23.010,0 1821,05 60,37 27,51 3,80 1114,93
15/02/2021 2.269 0 23.010,0 1818,75 60,09 27,67 3,82 1114,93
16/02/2021 2.311 0 23.010,0 1799,00 60,05 27,33 3,83 1114,93
17/02/2021 2.329 0 23.010,0 1772,80 61,14 27,32 3,83 1155,78
18/02/2021 2.347 0 23.015,0 1775,00 60,52 27,08 3,91 1174,38
19/02/2021 2.362 0 23.018,0 1777,40 59,24 27,25 4,08 1173,50
22/02/2021 2.392 0 23.020,0 1808,40 61,49 28,09 4,15 1175,04
23/02/2021 2.401 0 23.025,0 1805,90 61,67 27,74 4,19 1177,64
24/02/2021 2.412 0 23.020,0 1797,90 63,22 27,93 4,30 1162,01
25/02/2021 2.420 0 23.025,0 1775,40 63,53 27,69 4,26 1165,43
26/02/2021 2.426 0 23.015,0 1728,80 61,50 26,44 4,09 1168,47
01/03/2021 2.448 0 23.020,0 1723,00 60,64 26,68 4,11 1186,17
02/03/2021 2.472 0 23.022,0 1733,60 59,75 26,88 4,22 1186,61
03/03/2021 2.482 0 23.020,0 1715,80 61,28 26,39 4,14 1186,95
04/03/2021 2.488 0 23.019,0 1700,70 63,83 25,46 3,98 1168,52
05/03/2021 2.494 0 23.033,0 1698,50 66,09 25,29 4,08 1168,69
08/03/2021 2.524 0 23.025,0 1678,00 65,05 25,27 4,09 1168,27
09/03/2021 2.526 0 23.060,0 1716,90 64,01 26,18 4,01 1161,97
10/03/2021 2.529 0 23.052,0 1721,80 64,44 26,13 4,03 1170,08
11/03/2021 2.533 0 23.051,0 1722,60 66,02 26,19 4,14 1181,73
12/03/2021 2.550 0 23.055,0 1719,80 65,61 25,91 4,14 1181,56
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM NĂM 2020 VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG NĂM 2021 
ỨNG PHÓ VÀ VƯỢT QUA ĐẠI DỊCH COVID-19, HƯỚNG TỚI PHỤC HỒI VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN
143
PHỤ LỤC 02. KẾT QUẢ PHÂN TÍCH DỮ LIỆU
1. Thống kê mô tả
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
TTC 285 16 2550 924,36 687,422
TTD 285 0 35 1,89 6,743
EXR 285 22970,0 23642,5 23204,946 137,8499
GOLD 285 1487,10 2069,40 1815,0244 111,83228
OIL 285 -37,63 66,09 40,9405 12,15549
SIL 285 11,81 29,42 22,1058 4,63333
COP 285 2,10 4,30 3,0005 ,53135
VNI 285 659,21 1194,20 929,3725 133,83781
Valid N (list-
wise)
285
2. Tương quan biến
Correlations
TTC TTD EXR GOLD OIL SIL COP VNI
TTC
Pearson Correla-
tion
1 ,022 -,748** ,390** ,719** ,816** ,949** ,868**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,714 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
TTD
Pearson Correla-
tion
,022 1 -,063 ,382** ,035 ,317** -,027 -,134*
Sig. (2-tailed) ,714 ,288 ,000 ,557 ,000 ,654 ,023
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
EXR
Pearson Correla-
tion
-,748** -,063 1 -,465** -,849** -,797** -,856** -,834**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,288 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
GOLD
Pearson Correla-
tion
,390** ,382** -,465** 1 ,256** ,781** ,408** ,251**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
OIL
Pearson Correla-
tion
,719** ,035 -,849** ,256** 1 ,692** ,823** ,822**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,557 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA
144
Correlations
TTC TTD EXR GOLD OIL SIL COP VNI
SIL
Pearson Correla-
tion
,816** ,317** -,797** ,781** ,692** 1 ,831** ,702**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
COP
Pearson Correla-
tion
,949** -,027 -,856** ,408** ,823** ,831** 1 ,933**
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,654 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
VNI
Pearson Correla-
tion
,868** -,134* -,834** ,251** ,822** ,702** ,933** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 ,023 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
N 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
**. Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed).
3. Phân tích hồi quy bội
3.1. Biến tỷ giá hối đoái (EXR)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
VNI, GOLD, OIL, 
TTC, SIL, COPb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: EXR
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R
R 
Square
Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 ,923a ,853 ,850 53,4623
a. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, OIL, TTC, SIL, COP
ANOVAa
Model Sum of 
Squares
df Mean 
Square
F Sig.
1
Regression 4602151,259 6 767025,210 268,357 ,000b
Residual 794585,648 278 2858,222
Total 5396736,907 284
a. Dependent Variable: EXR
b. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, OIL, TTC, SIL, COP
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM NĂM 2020 VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG NĂM 2021 
ỨNG PHÓ VÀ VƯỢT QUA ĐẠI DỊCH COVID-19, HƯỚNG TỚI PHỤC HỒI VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN
145
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 24264,942 106,524 227,788 ,000
TTC ,100 ,018 ,497 5,628 ,000
GOLD -,064 ,076 -,052 -,841 ,401
OIL -3,455 ,581 -,305 -5,948 ,000
SIL -9,270 3,017 -,312 -3,073 ,002
COP -133,794 31,353 -,516 -4,267 ,000
VNI -,311 ,074 -,302 -4,172 ,000
a. Dependent Variable: EXR
3.2. Biến giá vàng (GOL)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
VNI, TTD, SIL, OIL, 
EXR, TTC, COPb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: GOLD
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R 
Square
Std. Error of 
the Estimate
1 ,931a ,867 ,864 41,31272
a. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, TTD, SIL, OIL, EXR, TTC, COP
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 3079066,719 7 439866,674 257,723 ,000b
Residual 472767,289 277 1706,741
Total 3551834,008 284
a. Dependent Variable: GOLD
b. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, TTD, SIL, OIL, EXR, TTC, COP
KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA
146
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 2148,046 1120,378 1,917 ,056
TTC -,096 ,013 -,590 -7,255 ,000
TTD -1,776 ,470 -,107 -3,782 ,000
EXR -,037 ,046 -,046 -,807 ,420
OIL -3,493 ,429 -,380 -8,152 ,000
SIL 37,686 1,352 1,561 27,865 ,000
COP 15,467 25,584 ,073 ,605 ,546
VNI -,119 ,060 -,142 -1,987 ,048
a. Dependent Variable: GOLD
3.3. Biến giá dầu (OIL)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
VNI, GOLD, EXR, TTC, 
SIL, COPb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: OIL
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 ,906a ,821 ,817 5,19956
a. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, EXR, TTC, SIL, COP
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 34446,821 6 5741,137 212,356 ,000b
Residual 7515,855 278 27,035
Total 41962,676 284
a. Dependent Variable: OIL
b. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, EXR, TTC, SIL, COP
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 822,633 133,065 6,182 ,000
TTC -,010 ,002 -,550 -5,654 ,000
EXR -,033 ,005 -,371 -5,948 ,000
GOLD -,057 ,007 -,524 -8,711 ,000
SIL 1,986 ,274 ,757 7,260 ,000
COP 10,866 3,079 ,475 3,529 ,000
VNI ,013 ,007 ,147 1,803 ,072
a. Dependent Variable: OIL
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM NĂM 2020 VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG NĂM 2021 
ỨNG PHÓ VÀ VƯỢT QUA ĐẠI DỊCH COVID-19, HƯỚNG TỚI PHỤC HỒI VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN
147
3.4. Biến giá bạc (SIL)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
VNI, TTD, GOLD, OIL, 
TTC, EXR, COPb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: SIL
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 ,980a ,960 ,959 ,94114
a. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, TTD, GOLD, OIL, TTC, EXR, COP
ANOVAa
Model Sum of 
Squares
df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 5851,490 7 835,927 943,761 ,000b
Residual 245,350 277 ,886
Total 6096,840 284
a. Dependent Variable: SIL
b. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, TTD, GOLD, OIL, TTC, EXR, COP
Coefficientsa
Model
B
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 46,517 25,539 1,821 ,070
TTC ,002 ,000 ,362 8,277 ,000
TTD ,080 ,010 ,117 8,123 ,000
EXR -,003 ,001 -,086 -2,771 ,006
GOLD ,020 ,001 ,472 27,865 ,000
OIL ,061 ,010 ,160 5,944 ,000
COP 1,102 ,579 ,126 1,902 ,058
VNI -,001 ,001 -,036 -,899 ,370
a. Dependent Variable: SIL
KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA
148
3.5. Biến giá đồng (COP)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
VNI, GOLD, OIL, TTC, 
EXR, SILb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: COP
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 ,983a ,966 ,965 ,09908
a. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, OIL, TTC, EXR, SIL
ANOVAa
Model Sum of 
Squares
df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 77,454 6 12,909 1315,078 ,000b
Residual 2,729 278 ,010
Total 80,183 284
a. Dependent Variable: COP
b. Predictors: (Constant), VNI, GOLD, OIL, TTC, EXR, SIL
Coefficientsa
Model
B
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 11,616 2,613 4,445 ,000
TTC ,000 ,000 ,502 15,165 ,000
EXR ,000 ,000 -,119 -4,267 ,000
GOLD ,000 ,000 ,043 1,471 ,143
OIL ,004 ,001 ,090 3,529 ,000
SIL ,002 ,006 ,019 ,375 ,708
VNI ,001 ,000 ,300 9,675 ,000
a. Dependent Variable: COP
3.6. Biến chỉ số VN-Index (VNI)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method
1
COP, TTD, GOLD, OIL, 
EXR, TTC, SILb
. Enter
a. Dependent Variable: VNI
b. All requested variables entered.
KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM NĂM 2020 VÀ TRIỂN VỌNG NĂM 2021 
ỨNG PHÓ VÀ VƯỢT QUA ĐẠI DỊCH COVID-19, HƯỚNG TỚI PHỤC HỒI VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN
149
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 ,952a ,907 ,905 41,28346
a. Predictors: (Constant), COP, TTD, GOLD, OIL, EXR, TTC, SIL
ANOVAa
Model Sum of 
Squares
df Mean Square F Sig.
1
Regression 4615069,003 7 659295,572 386,837 ,000b
Residual 472097,709 277 1704,324
Total 5087166,712 284
a. Dependent Variable: VNI
b. Predictors: (Constant), COP, TTD, GOLD, OIL, EXR, TTC, SIL
Coefficientsa
Model
B
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients
t Sig.
Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 4853,086 1088,612 4,458 ,000
TTC ,011 ,014 ,055 ,737 ,462
TTD -1,318 ,475 -,066 -2,777 ,006
EXR -,184 ,045 -,190 -4,095 ,000
GOLD -,118 ,060 -,099 -1,987 ,048
OIL ,906 ,474 ,082 1,913 ,057
SIL -2,365 2,632 -,082 -,899 ,370
COP 190,914 22,867 ,758 8,349 ,000
a. Dependent Variable: VNI